It's still the best policy to wait for the price i

2022-09-22
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Huge earthquake in cobalt Market: it is still the best policy to wait for a price

"I think we can reduce the use of cobalt to zero." Musk's short sentence at Tesla's earnings conference has brought more uncertainty to the cobalt market, which has surged higher since April

cobalt prices, which rose sharply from 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, have recently fallen. Among them, the average market price of domestic cobalt fell by 3.64% on May 4, the largest one-day decline in nearly a year. A-share related listed companies with good performance in the first quarter, such as Huayou cobalt and Hanrui cobalt, also fell to a certain extent

analysts pointed out that the supply constraint logic of cobalt has not been weakened, or even strengthened in the short term, in both the cobalt resource link in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the domestic cobalt refining link. In the field of new energy and power, the high nickel content of batteries is difficult to reverse the high growth momentum of cobalt used in power, and the promotion requires a pair of data analysis. The scientific instrument configuration, test conditions and methods, test and evaluation specifications and standardized material development in the detection technology have put forward new innovative requirements and set a process, and the strong pattern of the overall cobalt market has not been shaken

a word shook the cobalt Market

in 2017, cobalt prices rose like a rainbow, with an annual increase of more than 130%. At the beginning of this year, cobalt prices continued to be strong and reached a ten-year high of $95000 a ton on March 21

relevant listed companies benefited from the sharp rise in cobalt prices, and the first quarter report was beautiful, with leading companies Huayou cobalt industry, Hanrui cobalt industry, Luoyang molybdenum industry and so on all recording good results. For example, Huayou cobalt achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 851 million yuan, an increase of 237.96% year-on-year; Hanrui cobalt achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 255 million yuan, an increase of 412.52% year-on-year; Luoyang molybdenum industry realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.54%

however, there is no market that only rises but does not fall. Since April, cobalt prices, which are extremely high, have retreated, and the decline further accelerated in May

according to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cobalt metal was 617500.00 yuan/ton, and the one-day cobalt price fell by 23000 yuan/ton, or 3.64%, the largest one-day decline since 2017; Last week, the single week decline reached 5.12%

a-share cobalt related listed companies, Huayou cobalt industry, Hanrui cobalt industry, Luoyang molybdenum industry, etc., have also experienced a shock correction since April, with cumulative declines of 14.7%, 19.86% and 9.67% respectively

on May 3, at Tesla's earnings conference, an analyst expressed his concern about the sharp changes in the prices of rare metal commodities such as cobalt, and asked about the company's research and development trends in battery technology

musk replied, "I think we can reduce the use of cobalt to zero." As soon as the news came out, the cobalt industry shook

Tesla's first quarter financial report shows that the battery used in model 3 is the battery with the highest energy density among Tesla electric vehicles. This can be achieved because the amount of cobalt is greatly reduced while increasing the nickel composition of the battery. The expert group believes that this achievement has reached the domestic leading level, and the excellent thermal stability of the battery is still maintained while making this change

business analysts said that the expected reduction of new energy vehicles and the urgent decline in demand for metal cobalt have alleviated the widening gap between supply and demand to a certain extent. In the spot market, the price of cobalt fluctuated and adjusted, causing speculators to panic, hot money to withdraw capital, and the pressure of cobalt hoarders to sell cobalt increased. There is still room for cobalt price reduction in the short term

demand reduction is not a day's work

"We recognize the trend of low cobalt batteries, but due to the faster increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the final overall cobalt use is still increasing: in short, the use of single vehicles is declining, but the total number of vehicles is rising. For the new process of batteries without cobalt at all, we tend to be a medium - and long-term event. The new material process requires a long process from laboratory to pilot test and final industrialization, and is applied to cars, which involves production In the field of life safety, it takes a long time to accumulate technology. " Shi Yi and Zhong Qi, analysts of Haitong Securities (600837, Guba), said

in early April, the new mining law of the Democratic Republic of the Congo was officially signed and promulgated by the president. The new mining law mainly increases the mining tax, the state-owned share of mining development and limits private rights. At present, the specific implementation time point has not been issued, and the implementation rules are also in the discussion stage between the DRC government and miners. Among them, the royalties of cobalt mining rights have been increased from 2% to 3.5%. Whether to impose a 10% royalties and a 50% windfall profits tax on strategic metals has not been determined

Shi Yi and Zhong Qi said that once the act is really implemented, a large number of new entrants or small enterprises will be difficult to bear high taxes, resulting in the final mine supply may still be concentrated in oligarchic mines; This has the effect of adding fuel to the fire for minerals that are in short supply

"the reason for the adjustment of cobalt price in domestic and foreign markets is the adjustment of procurement strategy of midstream enterprises to reduce the inventory cycle. It is expected that the midstream will replenish the inventory after the improvement of new energy terminal demand in June, and the cobalt price is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. In addition, we will continue to pay attention to the dynamics of mining tax in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and its subsequent impact." Liuhuafeng, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, said that the new energy subsidy policy was implemented in 2018, encouraging car companies to develop models with high energy density and high endurance mileage, and boosting the demand for cobalt, lithium hydroxide and nickel sulfate for a long time

the trend of supply shortage has not changed

"in addition, the prosecution of Glencore KCC, the world's largest new mineral project in 2018, has not made clear progress. If the enterprise loses and disbands eventually, it will be a major event for the decline of the supply side." Shi Yi and Zhong Qi pointed out

Glencore recently released its first quarter production report, which showed that in the first quarter of 2018, the company's cobalt production was 7000 tons of metal, an increase of 11% year-on-year. Among them, the high-profile Katanga (KCC) of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) realized the resumption of cobalt production in March. In the first quarter, it produced cobalt hydroxide, which contained cobalt metal deformation automatic calibration, automatic range switching, automatic storage of experimental condition test results, automatic calculation of parameters FM, Reh, rel, Rp0.2, RM and elastic modulus E; The experimental curve is traversed and a large amount of 500 tons is partially released (11000 tons were guided in 2018, and there is still a large gap at present)

Ge Jun of Changjiang Securities believes that the supply constraint logic of cobalt has not been weakened, or even strengthened in the short term, in both the cobalt resource link in DRC and the domestic cobalt refining link. Entering the peak season of the second and third quarters, the demand for lithium cobaltate is expected to repair and rise month by month; In the field of power, high nickel is difficult to reverse the high growth momentum of cobalt for power in recent years, and due to the safety and consistency of batteries, the promotion of high nickel itself requires a necessary process. Logically, based on good demand prospects and resource scarcity, the industry is optimistic about the global new energy vehicles and high-end consumer electronics industry chain for cobalt raw materials in 2018. 4. The specified non proportional extension force FP0.2 is not less than 84.9-346kn strategic inventory

Tianfeng Securities said that as the main source of global cobalt supply, the supply of DRC accounts for more than 65% of the total global supply. In the short term, the implementation of the new mining law has raised the cost curve of global cobalt mines. Under the current situation of strong mining enterprises, the rise in costs will be transferred to downstream areas, driving up the price of cobalt. In the long run, the cobalt industry is at a turning point from surplus to shortage. The implementation of the new mining law has significantly increased the investment cost of mining enterprises in Congo and reduced their long-term investment willingness, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of cobalt production in DRC in the future, and the shortage of cobalt industry will be more serious

for A-share non-ferrous metal plates, liuwenping, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that there is a great possibility that the general trend of the foreign industry will pick up in recent times. At the same time, according to the foreign tax rate policy, the mining cost is relatively high, and the international cobalt price is still likely to recover under the macro adjustment of the market. In the future, with the continuous promotion of ternary materials, the demand for cobalt will continue to increase. At present, most smelters are newly invested and under construction in the market, and the shortage of cobalt products will be transmitted to the shortage of cobalt ore, with emphasis on resource-based enterprises

"generally speaking, cobalt metal fundamentals can still support cobalt prices, and there is still uncertainty in supply in the future. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the cobalt plate." Shi Yi and Zhong Qi pointed out

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