Liansu's vitality is seriously damaged, and it is difficult to have a good rebound.
Liansu has started a round of sharp and rapid decline since November 11, erasing the rising space of the previous two months, and returning to the consolidation platform between August and September. During this period, it has experienced five limits, and it also touched the limit several times last Friday, and the trend is very weak. The author believes that the reasons for the sharp decline of Liansu are mainly reflected in two aspects: one is the de foam, which will greatly increase the proportion of exports to emerging countries after the rapid rise out of fundamental support in early November, and the other is the suppression of a series of tightening policies adopted at home. In the later stage, the trend of various varieties in the commodity market may return to their respective fundamentals, and there will be no overall sharp rise or correction
policy regulation has led to market disruption.
since November 11, 2010, commodity prices have fallen sharply, which is mainly affected by policy regulation factors. At the beginning of November, affected by the second easing policy of the Federal Reserve, the market generally expected that the feast of dollar liquidity was inevitable, and the price of bulk commodities rose rapidly. PTA had three consecutive limit boards, and even plastic had two consecutive trading days. As prices rose too fast in October, especially the prices of agricultural products, the CPI index published by China's Bureau of statistics continued to hit new highs. The year-on-year growth values of China's CPI index in the past five months were 2.9%, 3.3%, 3.5%, 3.6% and 4.4% respectively. Recently, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio twice in nine days, and various exchanges have continuously introduced various measures to increase the trading margin, temporarily cancel the preferential handling charges for opening and closing positions on that day, and expand the price limit. The purpose of these measures is to shrink money, control market liquidity, create a reservoir for incoming hot money, and curb excessive investment and speculation
at present, the focus of the market is on the central economic work conference held in early December and the November macroeconomic operation data released in mid December, which will set the tone for the macroeconomic policy of the second year according to the current economic situation. The time when the November macroeconomic operation data of injection molding multi-layer polyethylene products are released may become the time window for the expected interest rate hike again, and the market anxiety is difficult to dissipate, The commodity market will also fluctuate violently
crude oil prices were suppressed by the strength of the US dollar
due to the European debt crisis and the exchange of fire between the DPRK and the ROK, the US dollar index once exceeded the 80 point mark. Data released by the U.S. Department of labor on November 25 showed that as of November 20, the number of first-time jobless claims fell by 34000 to 407000, a new low since July 2008, bringing strong support to the dollar. The author believes that it is not difficult for the US dollar to rise to 82-84 points in the later stage, which will play a greater role in suppressing the commodity market. Advanced chip integration technology entered the fourth quarter. Due to the end of the traditional peak of gasoline consumption and the peak season of heating oil consumption has not yet arrived, the overall demand for crude oil is still maintained at 820000-840000 barrels/day. U.S. crude oil inventories have been at historically high levels for a long time. If there are no other positive factors to stimulate, the price of U.S. crude oil may hover between $80-85/barrel due to the strong U.S. dollar
the overall supply and demand of plastics is still weak
in October 2010, the domestic PE output was 984500 tons, an increase of 188100 tons year-on-year, an increase of 23.62%, and an increase of 98800 tons month on month, an increase of 11.16%; From January to October, the cumulative output was 8.5557 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9364 million tons, an increase of 29.25%; In October, the total import volume of PE was 534700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 37700 tons, an increase of 7.59%, and a month on month decrease of 86400 tons, a decrease of 13.91%. In terms of import volume, after the recent sharp decline of domestic PE spot price, the price lower than the international price will hinder the recent increase of import volume
according to wind data, China's plastic film production in October was 715000 tons, an increase of 20.78% year-on-year and 1.32% month on month; The output of agricultural film was 151000 tons, an increase of 54.19% year-on-year and 4.93% month on month. In terms of growth rate, the growth rate of downstream production is far less than that of PE production, which is mainly reflected in the output of plastic film. The increment of agricultural film in October is the embodiment of the peak season of agricultural film production. In terms of terminal demand, the current peak season of greenhouse film and garlic mulch film production is coming to an end, and the demand for most varieties is flat, and it will completely enter the off-season of PE demand after mid December. As of November 26, 27183 plastic warehouse receipts had been registered in Dashang, an increase of 4643 sheets over the end of last month, equivalent to 1359.15 million tons of plastic. This phenomenon reflects that the market demand for commodities is extremely flat, resulting in the continuous increase of futures warehouse receipts
to sum up, China's policy regulation has led to market distraction, especially the gradual tightening of domestic monetary policy, and various exchanges have taken various measures to control speculation, which will greatly affect the overall market sentiment. At the same time, the strength of the US dollar also puts pressure on the rise of the commodity market, and the oversupply situation will affect the trend of Liansu for a long time. The increase in the registered warehouse receipts of Dachang plastics reflects the extremely light market demand for emerging goods. Therefore, Liansu market as a whole will show a weak pattern of oscillation, and it is difficult for the market to have a sharp and strong rebound. In the later stage, it will be in the stage of recuperation after being seriously weakened. Technically, the main 1105 contract is suppressed by the 60 day moving average long and short watershed, and investors are advised to sell short in case of rebound
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