Cai Daying, Deputy Secretary General of the most p

Cai Daying, Deputy Secretary General of China Light Industry Federation: from the data, we can see the new characteristics and future trend of China's paper industry

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core tip: from December 2011 to today, the operation of the entire light industry, from overheating to supercooling, the entire index fell from 107 to 87, a straight decline in the three-year process. Although from overheating to low-end supercooling, this is the concentrated performance of the industry in the process of the new normal

[China Packaging News] from December 2011 to today, the operation of the entire light industry, from overheating to supercooling, the entire index fell from 107 to 87, and fell sharply in the three years. Although from overheating to low-end supercooling, this is the concentrated performance of the industry in the process of the new normal

Cai Daying, Deputy Secretary General of China Light Industry Federation

the data itself has a certain correlation. Therefore, the data are viewed in two coordinates, one is the performance of the paper industry itself in the time coordinate, and the other is the vertical coordinate of the light industry. As you know, compared with ourselves, we have set a record high. Seeing the results, it gives people encouragement and morale. However, if you compare vertically, you can see the gap better. The gap is the driving force

new characteristics of China's paper industry

four new characteristics of China's paper industry are summarized: the deviation between output and GDP trend; Huge investment and low return; The polarization of enterprises accelerates; The high-end import market is strong

deviation between initial production and GDP trend

from the comparison between national GDP and the growth trend of machine-made paper and paperboard production of Enterprises above national scale from 2010 to 2014: GDP growth rate fell and stabilized, entering the new normal range of 7%. The growth rate of machine-made paper and paperboard production has decreased significantly since 2012, and by 2014, it has decreased by 8.6 percentage points compared with the development history of Jinan testing tensile machine in 2010

for many years, it has been believed that paper production is positively related to GDP growth. At present, the paper production deviates from the trend of GDP. In the future, we can't simply use GDP growth to calculate the paper production

huge initial investment, low return on benefits

in recent years, the annual new fixed asset investment in the paper industry has increased from 146.35 billion yuan in 2010 to 279.68 billion yuan in 2014, but the profit level of the enterprise has not increased, forming an investment black hole

the total profit of the industry increased from 52.06 billion yuan in 2010 to 69.9 billion yuan in 2014. The first reason is that due to overcapacity, the operating rate of some new projects is low, making the investment ineffective; Another important reason is that enterprises have invested a lot of money in environmental protection

the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the paper industry has decreased significantly in recent years, from 31.4% in 2011 to 6.4% in 2014. The growth rate of investment in 2014 was lower than that of most light manufacturing industries, and also significantly behind the average growth rate of the national manufacturing industry

growth rate of main business income. In 2014, the main profit margin of the national machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing industry was 4.6%, lower than the national average of 5.2% in light industry. Compared with other industries of light industry, the paper industry is in a sluggish state in terms of revenue growth and profit growth from its main business

paper profit margin decreased. In 2014, the cumulative main business income profit margin of the national machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing industry was 4.60%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.42%

the pulp industry suffered serious losses. In 2014, the total accumulated profit of the national paper industry was 69.899 billion yuan, of which the total profit of paper industry was 36.191 billion yuan (accounting for 51.78%); The total profit of paper products manufacturing is 34.43 billion yuan (49.26%); The total profit of pulp manufacturing is -722 million yuan (accounting for -1.03%)

the polarization accelerated at the beginning

due to mergers and acquisitions among enterprises and the survival of the fittest in the market, the concentration of the paper industry has gradually increased in recent years, and the proportion of the main business income of large enterprises has increased by nearly 10 percentage points in the past five years. Major changes have taken place in the structural adjustment of enterprises

mergers and acquisitions among enterprises at the beginning of the year

Fuyang municipal government led the reorganization of the paper industry. Zhejiang Yongtai and Zhengda paper companies will take the lead in restructuring the paper group, with a scale of 3.2 million tons, ranking fifth in the national output

at the beginning of the market, the survival of the fittest, small enterprises out

high end products are still popular with consumers. Under the influence of the market, high-end products crowd out middle-end products, middle-end products crowd out low-end products, and low-end products are eliminated, followed by the elimination of weak small and medium-sized enterprises

the initial high-end import market is strong

pulp is highly dependent on foreign countries. Although China has implemented forest paper integration for many years, the external dependence of pulp is still high. In 2014, 17.97 million tons of pulp were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%

although the domestic paper industry has made great progress in quality and quantity in recent years, domestic products cannot completely replace imported paper. The imported paper sheet has been close to 3million tons. In 2014, China imported 2.55 million tons of high-grade paper with less damage. It shows that there is still market space for high-quality paper, such as special paper, high-end packaging paper, etc

future trend of China's paper industry

under the new normal, there is still a lot of work to be done in transforming the quality of papermaking equipment from medium and high-end to high-end. In this case, the new characteristics of the future development of China's paper industry mainly include: further improvement of industrial agglomeration, further improvement of social friendliness, further improvement of international integration, and brand awareness as the point of choice

at the beginning, the industrial agglomeration was further improved

the structure of China's paper industry ushered in an important inflection point. The number of machine-made paper and paperboard enterprises showed negative growth for the first time: in March 2015, the number of enterprises in the machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing industry in China was 2396, 207 less than that at the end of 2014, indicating that the scale and agglomeration of the paper industry were further improved

among them, there are 85 large enterprises, accounting for 3.55%; There are 401 medium-sized enterprises, accounting for 16.74%; There are 1910 small enterprises, accounting for 79.72%

at the beginning of the year, the social friendliness was further improved

the 2013 annual report of environmental statistics released by the Ministry of environmental protection showed that among the 41 industrial industries surveyed and counted in 2013, papermaking and paper products industry:

wastewater discharge reached 2.85 billion tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 16.8% from 3.43 billion tons in 2012

chemical oxygen demand emissions reached 533000 tons, down 14.4% from 623000 tons in 2012

although the two indicators still rank first in all industries, the decline is the largest

with the implementation of the national new environmental protection law and the ten water policies and regulations, the pollution of the paper industry will be further treated, and the social friendliness will be further improved in the future

at the beginning, the degree of international integration was further improved

implement going out and make full use of international resources. Shandong Taiyang Paper Co., Ltd. plans to invest in a large-scale fluff pulp project in the United States, following the construction of a forest paper integration project in Laos. Shandong Quanlin paper plans to invest US $2billion to build a non wood fiber papermaking project in the United States

industry exports will continue to maintain steady growth. According to the calculation of China Light Industry Information Center, in 2015, the export volume of the paper industry will reach about 18.5 billion US dollars, and the growth rate will remain at about 13%

initial brand awareness becomes the choice point

the products of the paper industry include industrial paper, household paper and paper products. With the development of society and the maturity of the consumer market, brand will become an important choice for consumers. The social attribute of brand requires consumers to guarantee product quality through brand premium

not only the brands of household paper will be well known by consumers, such as HengAn, Weida, Qingfeng, etc., but also the brands of industrial paper such as nine dragons, Hailong, golden sun, etc. will also be an important basis for users to choose products

strengthening the construction of brand culture will become an important part of the future development of paper enterprises

data oriented, brilliant start again

where is the new breakthrough direction of the paper industry? What do you think of new breakthroughs? Everyone has different opinions. Enterprises will succeed in this era. This era is a happy era, on the contrary, it is a dark era

the new breakthroughs can be roughly divided into five aspects:

the first is the awareness of innovation. Recently, the country announced the "made in China 2025", the first is to improve the country's innovation ability and innovation industry drive. To adapt to the new normal, we must have new ideas and ideas

the second is scale awareness, from scale awareness to quality benefits. The agglomeration trend of paper industry is developing rapidly

third, social Zhongwang has also accelerated the research and development of all aluminum vehicle products and the awareness of relevant capacity construction. The paper industry accounts for 5.23% of the national industrial output value, but the emissions are large. Although a lot of work has been done, such a gap still exists

the fourth is brand awareness. We should pay attention to product quality, expand, refine and strengthen the enterprise brand, which is determined by the characteristics of the industry and the future market demand. The hydraulic pressure of the bursting tester is very important

the last point is to have international awareness, break through ideas, and let the paper industry go global

with the advent of the information age, the development of the paper industry must be based on data analysis to determine the future development direction. It is necessary to make decisions on the future production selection direction based on the change trend of the main paper production data. (see Table 1)

for enterprises, it depends on the government. In the past, we talked about stabilizing growth, adjusting structure and benefiting people's livelihood, but now we add another word: preventing risks. The government's policies are not only political, but also contain many opportunities for development. We should also look at the data and see the trend through the data. Based on the output data, the paper type selection direction is decided; Based on the change trend of regional output data, make decisions on the location and layout of enterprises in the future; Based on the changing trend of foreign market demand data, the international strategic layout of going global is decided

in recent years, many enterprises have worked hard to achieve enterprise transformation. With the leadership of the government, the overall planning of the association and the hard work of entrepreneurs, I believe that the future of China's paper industry will be better