Polysilicon prices rose into a sweet pie or a trap
in the past 2007, polysilicon has attracted full attention of the market. Stimulated by the widening market gap and rising prices, another upsurge of investment in polysilicon projects has emerged in China. In this new energy development strategy, Tianwei baobian, Sichuan investment energy, TBEA and other listed companies have joined the ranks
however, while domestic enterprises and gangs steal the building materials industry, which is optimistic about the tensile test of the egg of solar energy according to ASTM D 638 and ISO 527, the United States on the other side of the ocean raises an objection to another wave of polysilicon fever rising in China. Recently, Wuxi Suntech and Jiangxi Savi, domestic new energy companies listed in the United States, have both fallen by more than 40% and 50% in a month
analysts believe that the shortage of the market has produced enough attraction for enterprises to invest in polysilicon, but in the case of a large amount of production capacity, there may be excess risks in the future. In addition, the risks that may be brought by bottlenecks such as technology and cost cannot be ignored
the supply gap is expected to be filled.
polysilicon is the basic material of the solar photovoltaic industry. In 2007, the demand for solar polysilicon increased rapidly, and the supply of silicon raw materials in the international market continued to fall short of demand. Statistics show that in 2005, the price of polysilicon per kilogram was US $66. After breaking through US $300 in the fourth quarter of 2006, it remained at the level of US $300 to US $330 in the first half of 2007. Most analysts believe that this price can hardly be significantly increased. However, at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2007, the market transaction price rose again to the level of $360 to $370, and in December, it hit a sky high price of $400 per kilogram
according to the analysis of insiders, according to the current growth rate of solar power generation system of about 20%, the demand for solar polysilicon in 2008 is expected to be more than 26000 tons, while the supply is only about 25000 tons, and the supply is still tight
under the background of the state's strong support for the development of new energy, domestic enterprises have shown strong interest in the polysilicon industry. In November 2007, Tianwei baobian, Minjiang hydropower, Leshan power and Sichuan investment energy all announced that they planned to build two 3000 ton/year polysilicon projects in the form of new companies. On January 22, TBEA announced that the company plans to jointly invest with a number of companies to establish TBEA polysilicon Co., Ltd. to engage in the R & D, manufacturing, production and sales of polysilicon materials. The value of waste pulp in overseas bases of other countries has become increasingly prominent. On the same day, the governor of Hunan Province, Zhou Qiang, proposed in the "government work report" of the "two sessions" of the province that "Yiyang crystalline silicon production project should be completed"
pan hangjun, an analyst at Zhongyuan securities, told this newspaper: "At present, China's photovoltaic capacity is expanding rapidly, and polysilicon, as the main raw material for the production of photovoltaic capacity, accounts for 80% of its cost. However, more than 95% of domestic high-purity silicon materials depend on imports, and the supply is controlled by others for a long time. The rising price of polysilicon for solar energy makes the profit space of domestic solar energy manufacturers continue to shrink. If several projects are put into operation successfully, it will vigorously alleviate the bottleneck of raw materials and promote the development of solar energy in China."
CICC research believes that polysilicon project is an inevitable choice for domestic enterprises to implement new energy strategy. Because silicon chips, solar cell modules and photovoltaic engineering projects are widely favored by the market
there is a risk of overcapacity
it is reported that more than 20 provinces and cities in China regard the photovoltaic industry as the focus of developing new industries and transforming old industries, actively seek technology and funds, and plan or plan to build polysilicon projects one after another. The China new energy industry annual report 2007 released a few days ago shows that the planned capacity of polysilicon built and under construction in China is as high as 63560 tons, and an annual production capacity of about 18000 tons of polysilicon can be formed by 2008
the rapid development of domestic polysilicon industry has caused some industry insiders to worry about overcapacity. CICC research pointed out that China's solar grade silicon material production capacity was 2200 tons at the end of 2007, while the total production capacity will exceed 10000 tons at the end of 2008, and the supply will expand rapidly
therefore, it cannot be ruled out that when the polysilicon project is put into operation in 2010, both the silicon material price and the net interest rate of the project are lower than the market expectation
however, according to pan hangjun of Zhongyuan securities, in the coming years, the domestic polysilicon industry will still be dominated by strong demand. Under the concept that Evonik innovative projects of global new energy will continue in the coming years, exports will also alleviate the problem of overcapacity that may be caused
compared with this, Wuxi Suntech and Jiangxi Saiwei, both listed in the United States, have fallen by more than 40% and 50% in a month. Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech Wuxi, said in an interview that there were many reasons for the decline in energy stocks, including the uncertainty of new energy policies and the excessive number of polysilicon (raw material for solar cells) projects in China mentioned at individual meetings, which had nothing to do with the company's performance
at the same time, the cost problem is also another problem that the polysilicon industry needs to face. Recently, Vosges (002083) got involved in the photovoltaic industry through the research and development of CIS thin-film solar cell modules. Wang Jingang, Secretary of the board of directors of the company, told this newspaper: "the company chose the latter between polysilicon and CIS. After detailed investigation and sufficient market research, cost is the most important factor."
TBEA, which recently announced its entry into the polysilicon industry, pointed out in the investment risk of the project that due to the long construction period and production arrival period, it is impossible to accurately predict the return on investment, and the project also has certain risks